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Article History

Received: 15 April 2025

Revised: 2 December 2025

Accepted: 9 December 2025

First Online: 21 January 2026

Declarations

: I am grateful to Jean-Charles Rochet, Tony Berrada, Philippe Bacchetta, Eric Jondeau, Stéphane Dees, Stavros Zenios, Alain Naef and other discussants and participants at the CEPR Paris Symposium 2023, 13th PhD student Workshop on International Macroeconomics, 1st Verona Early Career Workshop in Economics, 4th EENR International Conference, DebtCon7, 28th ICMAIF, SFI Research Days 2024, PSE-CEPR Policy Forum 2024, 72nd AFSE Congress, QCGBF Conference 2024, EEA-ESEM Congress 2024 for valuable suggestions. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Swiss Finance Institute and the University of Geneva, which funded my doctoral studies during which this research was conducted. This research adheres to the ethical standards of academic integrity. I declare that I have no conflicts of interest. I have no financial, personal, or professional affiliations that could inappropriately influence, or be perceived to influence, the content of this work. I certify that I am the sole author of this paper and that I am solely responsible for all aspects of the research, including the conceptual framework, model development, data analysis, and manuscript preparation. The views expressed in this paper are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Banque de France or any other affiliated institution.