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Article History

Accepted: 3 April 2022

First Online: 19 May 2022

Declarations

:

: Research and material support for this manuscript was funded by Novartis Pharma AG (CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland).

: IB, CL, NA, and PD conceptualised the study. KL, PT, RB, CL, NA, PD, ES, and ZA performed research methodologies. KL, PT, RN, PD, ES, ZA, RB, and NA were involved in formal analysis and investigation. ES and ZA prepared the first draft. All authors reviewed and approved the manuscript. Funding was acquired by NA and supervision was provided by RB and NA.

: Kristyna Lacinova is a full-time employee of Simul8 Corporation Ltd. Praveen Thokala is the director of PT Health Economics Ltd and advised Novartis on this study on a consultancy basis. He has also performed paid consultancy in the past with IQVIA, RTI-HS, Roche, Pfizer, Daiichi Sankyo, Abbvie, Novo Nordisk and Novartis. Richard Nicholas is a paid employee of Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK, and has acted as a paid consultant in the past for Biogen, Roche, Teva, Merck, and Novartis. He has also received research funds from and worked on clinical trials run by Biogen and Novartis. Pamela Dobay, Erik Scalfaro and Zuzanna Angehrn are full-time employees of IQVIA AG, Basel, which received funding from Novartis Pharma AG to design, conduct and interpret the reported analyses. Roisin Brennan is a full-time employee of Novartis Global Services Centre. Ibolya Boer, Carol Lines, and Nicholas Adlard are full-time employees of Novartis Pharma AG.

: Not applicable.

: Not applicable.

: Not applicable since the model did not use patient-level data. Data were sourced from publicly available literature and assumptions based on clinical experience of one of the co-authors.

: Models were developed using Simul8 proprietary software; extracts from the model codes were available to the reviewers upon request. The feasibility of making the model publicly available is currently being evaluated.

: Not applicable since patient-level data have not been used in this study.