Wanjau, Mary Njeri https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4588-7528
Möller, Holger https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0675-8712
Standen, Christopher https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8027-6773
Haigh, Fiona https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5706-5118
Veerman, J. Lennert https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3206-8232
Funding for this research was provided by:
NSW Ministry of Health
Griffith University
Article History
Received: 10 October 2025
Accepted: 14 May 2026
First Online: 20 July 2026
Declarations
Conflict of Interest: Mary Njeri Wanjau, Holger Möller, Christopher Standen, Fiona Haigh and J. Lennert Veerman have no conflicts of interest that are directly relevant to the content of this article.
Ethics Approval: No ethics approval was required for this analysis.
Consent to Participate: Not applicable.
Consent for Publication: Not applicable.
Availability of Data and Material: Baseline travel patterns and transport injury data are available on request and upon approval by Transport for New South Wales (TfNSW). All other data used are available in the article and supplementary material.
Code Availability: The model was developed in MS Excel. Additional software EpigearXL and Ersatz add-in tools provided additional Excel functions. Both add-ins are available free of charge via . There are plans to translate the Model into R, but this will depend on the availability of resources, including funding.
Authors’ Contributions: MNW: methodology, formal analysis, investigation, data curation, validation, writing (original draft preparation), writing (reviewing and editing), visualization, project administration. HM: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, investigation, data curation, validation, writing (reviewing and editing), visualization, funding acquisition. CS: investigation, writing (reviewing and editing). FH: conceptualization, investigation, writing (reviewing and editing), funding acquisition. LV: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, investigation, resources, data curation, validation, writing (reviewing and editing), visualization, project administration, supervision, funding acquisition.