Document is current

Article History

Accepted: 10 July 2025

First Online: 28 July 2025

Declarations

:

: The data used were generated from studies funded by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (18/151) and Arthritis New Zealand (R295).

: Nicola Dalbeth has received consulting fees, speaker fees or grants from Novartis, Horizon, Selecta, Arthrosi, LG Chem, JPI, PTC Therapeutics, Protalix, Unlocked Labs, Hikma, Dexcel Pharma, Shanton Pharma, Sobi, Avalo, Biomarin, Crystalys and Medcryst outside the submitted work. Lisa Stamp has received funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand and Arthritis New Zealand related to the current work; royalties from Up-to-Date. The other authors report no competing interests.

: Analysed data may be made available to external collaborators upon reasonable request following review by the authors and with appropriate ethical approvals and acknowledgements.

: The study received ethical approval from the New Zealand Health and Disability Ethics Committee (18/STH/156). The authors confirm that the study was performed in accordance with the ethical standards laid out in the 1964 Declaration of Helsinki and its later amendments.

: Participants provided written informed consent.

: Not applicable.

: The code used for modelling and simulation is provided as a supplement to this paper.

: The colchicine clinical trial that generated the data was designed and led by LS and ND. Data collection was conducted by AH, JH and JD. DW conceptualised and designed the modelling analysis. DW and HH conducted the data analysis. DW drafted the manuscript. LS, ND, HH, AH, JH and JD edited and approved drafts of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final version of this manuscript.