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Authors
Carlin, Julian B. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5694-0809
Marcato, Adrian J. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5951-6886
Wang, Yingying https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7657-1200
Moss, Robert https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4568-2012
Carville, Kylie S. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3663-8802
Chen, Xinghui https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6041-2993
Oliver, Victoria L. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7023-5329
Spirkoska, Violeta https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0600-4569
Campbell, Patricia T. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4013-9835
Price, David J. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0076-3123
Carvalho, Natalie https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5599-2209
McVernon, Jodie https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9774-1961
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Funding
Funding for this research was provided by:
National Immunisation Division of the Australian Government Department of Health, Disability and Ageing.
University of Melbourne
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Article History
Received: 24 September 2025
Accepted: 27 January 2026
First Online: 7 March 2026
Declarations
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: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
: This study was funded by the National Immunisation Division of the Australian Government Department of Health, Disability and Ageing to support policy decision making. The model was parameterised using nationally aggregated patient data provided by the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing using Admitted Patient Care data supplied by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW). National Admitted Patient Care data (i.e. line by line unit records), collated by AIHW and supplied to the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, were aggregated and suppressed by the Department before being provided to the authors. Approval for the use of these data for analyses and subsequent publication was granted by the Department. Clinical risk factors in early infancy were parameterised using de-identified patient data from the Royal Children’s Hospital, use of which was granted by the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute Ethics Committee (#37185)
: Not applicable.
: Data are provided within the manuscript and supplementary information file. Code and instructions on reproducing the results in the study are available at the following repository: .
: Formal analysis (JBC, AJM, YW); funding acquisition (JMcV); investigation (JBC, AJM, YW); methodology (JBC, AJM, YW, PTC, JMcV); project administration (PTC, JMcV); resources (JMcV); software (JBC, YW, RM); supervision (PTC, DJP, NC, JMcV); validation–verification (KSC, VLO, VS); visualisation (JBC, YW); writing—original draft (JBC, AJM, YW, VLO, JMcV); writing—review and editing (All).
