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Article History

Accepted: 22 April 2024

First Online: 11 July 2024

Declarations

:

: Modelling and medical writing support for the manuscript was funded by Novartis Pharma AG (CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland).

: RN, ZA, RB and NA conceptualised the study. RN and RD provided input data. All authors contributed towards output data analysis and interpretation. RN, ES, ZA, RB and NA contributed towards manuscript drafting. RN, RD, ZA, JB, RB and NA critically reviewed the manuscript for important intellectual content. All authors provided their final approval of the manuscript and agreed to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

: RN is a paid employee of Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK, and has acted as a paid consultant in the past for Biogen, Roche and Novartis. He has also received research funds from and worked on clinical trials run by Biogen and Novartis. ES was a full-time employee of IQVIA AG, Basel, which received funding from Novartis Pharma AG to design, conduct and interpret the reported analyses. ZA was a full-time employee of IQVIA AG, Basel, which received funding from Novartis Pharma AG to design, conduct and interpret the reported analyses. ZA owns stocks of pharmaceutical companies. RB is a full-time employee of Novartis Corporate Center Dublin. NA is a full-time employee of Novartis Pharma AG. JB was a full-time employee of Novartis Pharma AG at the time of the analysis. RD has no conflict of interest to declare.

: Not applicable since patient-level data were not used in this study.

: Not applicable since patient-level data were not used in this study.

: Data sharing not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study. Data for populating scenario analysis were sourced from publicly available literature or based on assumptions stemming from the clinical experience of two of the co-authors.

: The ENTIMOS model is available through Open-Source Model Clearinghouse.