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Article History

Received: 16 June 2025

Accepted: 10 October 2025

First Online: 20 November 2025

Declarations

:

: The study was conducted using routinely collected public health surveillance and publicly available data in collaboration with Alberta Health. The analysis involved the secondary use of aggregate-level data that was securely stored following Alberta Health’s guidelines for confidentiality and the use of this public health surveillance data did not require ethics approval.

: Not applicable.

: The authors declare no competing interests.

: Supplementary information includes additional tables and figures for this manuscript. The transmission rates for the seasons 2015–2016 to 2018–2019 are described in Tables ). Data for for seasons 2015–2016 to 2018–2019 are provided in Tables to . The figures provided in the Appendix describe the crude CDR (Figure ), time-dependent CDR (Figures to ), retrospective fitting results by age group (Figures to ), prospective results four weeks before influenza peak by age (Figures to ), and prospective results two weeks prior to the influenza peak (Figures to ) from seasons 2016–2017 to 2018–2019. Figure illustrates influenza seasonal patterns taken directly from  [ ]. Marginal posterior distributions of parameters from the 2017–2018 influenza season are described in Figure to .